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http://hdl.handle.net/1903/4135
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| Title: | Air Transportation System Performance: Estimation and Comparative Analysis of Departure Delays |
| Authors: | Tu, Yufeng |
| Advisors: | Ball, Michael
Jank, Wolfgang |
| Department/Program: | Decision and Information Technologies |
| Type: | Dissertation |
| Sponsors: | Digital Repository at the University of Maryland
University of Maryland (College Park, Md.) |
| Keywords: | Business Administration, General (0310)
Transportation (0709)
Statistics (0463)
smoothing spline; mixture model; Expectation Maximization (EM); airline delay; airspace congestion; delay distribution |
| Issue Date: | 22-Nov-2006 |
| Abstract: | The U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) is inherently highly stochastic. Yet,
many existing decision support tools for air traffic flow management take a deterministic approach to problem solving. In this study, we focus on the flight departure delays because such delays serve as inputs to many air traffic congestion prediction systems. Modeling the randomness of the delays will provide a more accurate picture of the airspace traffic situation, improve the prediction of the airspace congestion and advance the level of decision making in aviation systems.
We first develop a model to identify the seasonal trend and daily propagation
pattern for flight delays, in which we employ nonparametric methods for modeling
the trends and mixture distribution for the residual errors estimation. This model
demonstrates reasonable goodness of fit, robustness to the choice of the model parameters, and good predictive capabilities. We emphasize that a major objective is to produce not just point ... |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1903/4135 |
| Appears in Collections: | Decision, Operations & Information Technologies Theses and Dissertations
UM Theses and Dissertations
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| umi-umd-3929.pdf | | 1288Kb | Adobe PDF | 315 | View/Open |
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